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Reading drawdown properly

Maximum drawdown, current drawdown, recovery time and why the worst loss so far is rarely the worst loss possible.

Maximum drawdown is a floor, not a ceiling

Maximum drawdown is the deepest peak-to-trough fall the vault has already suffered. It proves that size of loss is possible. It does not prove a larger one is not.

A young vault with a 5% maximum drawdown has usually not been tested, not proven safe.

Current drawdown tells you where you are entering

Depositing into a vault that is 30% below its peak means the manager must gain about 43% just to return to the old high-water mark. That is a different decision from depositing at a fresh peak.

Recovery time matters as much as depth

A 20% fall recovered in two weeks is a different strategy from a 20% fall that has lasted eight months. We track the longest drawdown in days for exactly this reason.

Educational content only. Nothing here is investment advice.